Sunday, May 25, 2008

some technical analysis

focusing on SGX stocks this week, we see a relatively poor performance, dropping around about 6% to 7% since it opened on tuesday. looking at the 6-month and 3-month chart, the 10-day EMA line has barely cut the 20-day EMA downwards, and quite possibly cutting the 50-day EMA as well. on chart analysis, i can see that support level at 8.50 has been breached as the shares closed at 8.38. next support level would probably come at the 8.00 mark. very strong resistance can be seen at the 9.00 mark as the share prices tested this level on 3 separate occasions.

we can see that the RSI are just kissing the 50% mark, and haven't really made any significant movement downwards. coupled with fast and slow stochastic readings just cutting below the 20% mark, and a weakening MACD histogram, i would probably need a significant indication from my RSI to ring my bell.

relatively bullish and risk-adverse investors might want to wait till the downward trend sees its demise probably after testing the 8.00 support level. eagerly bullish traders might want to get a significant indication from stochastics and RSI. however, in my opinion, the share prices are basically lost and confused (side-trending) and would probably favour the risk-loving intra-day traders.

moving on to Capitaland, as with most of the other stocks this week, the volatile stock closed down about 7% since its open on tuesday. its 10-day EMA already showed a convincing downwards cutting of the 20-day EMA, and by the looks of it, would probably cut the 50-day EMA. this is a relatively good indication for all the bears out there. historically over the past couple of months we can see supports coming at around about 6.50 and 6.80, and resistance at 7.10. last week, it could not sustain a convincing move over its 6.80 resistance after moving down and testing the 6.50 support early this month and hence, has a high chance of testing its 6.20 support.

RSI levels are looming below the 50% mark, showing no direction at the moment, and coupled with fast and slow stochastics below the 20% mark, prices look bleak for this week. for followers of the MACD histogram, it just moved into negative territory, giving more indications that the 6.20 support may be coming.

bullish investors can sleep awhile longer as i cant really foresee any upward movement of this stock this coming week. as for traders, the current price is relatively close to its 6.20 support and my guess is that it might be consolidating around the current price for this coming week.

i guess that if sentiments were to play a huge part for the market next week, both stocks may see a short term upward rise. however, with the gloomy world news circulating nowadays, slowing GDP and all, i'd probably stay as bear.

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