some updates

STI has broken above the resistance of 2420 and soared higher. currently, it is trading at 2576, apparently with nothing to stop its paths. just to take note of the consecutive 3 day rise of the index. coupled with a weak show in the US market may trigger a short term correction or reversal.

if we look at the broader perspective, we have to analyse the reason for such a huge move in the singapore equities market. as compared to the US markets, the singapore index has been progressively charging up higher, almost back up to 50% from peak to bottom, whereas the US markets (namely the S&P 500) is around about 35% back up. one way to look at it is that the asian markets in general are doing better in terms of picking up the debris since the meltdown occurred 12 hours away. however, there is a pressing problem of over speculation.

i was looking though some key statistics and indicators of the economy and found that the current economic climate is still shaky and gray. most key indicators point to a drop in figures which doesn't really tally with what the index is reflecting. my fear is that over speculation of share prices may be what that is driving the index up. in my opinion, one contributing factor to the over speculation would be the notion that the recovery is on the way. because of this over optimism, prices and value tend to deviate, and prices would soar way above value.

then again, i might be wrong. but i have this feeling that it is not all rosy as of yet because at this rate, the index would be up to pre-crash levels by the end of this year. i may be a cynic, but i hope for another slide so that i can go shopping once more.

more on bollinger

i've been using bollinger for a long time to trace out potential movement of stocks or indices. this is because bollinger takes into account volatility as well as moving averages.

for example: a couple of days ago, STI surged up many many points, over 70 plus points and closed there at its high. that broke the upper band of the bollinger band indicator. the next day, the index gapped up close to about 40 points, now you won't expect the index to surge up again don't you? thats pretty absurd. a good indication to short at that point would be when the index started to drop 5-10 points. good to short.

nonetheless, the prices are still above the band, so we may see a few more days of red. simple logic. the surge caused many short term investors to cash in on their positions. selling pressure builds. short sellers then take over to further facilitate the liquidity of the transactions, pushing prices lower.

i don't know how far it'll drop. but my guess is that if it goes low, first point to look at is 2300. not that low, i know.

nice

i've been waiting for the S&P500 to drop. and finally it did! it was looming around the 926-928 levels for a couple of days. i knew it was impossible for it to go up any higher. i guess i was right. watch out for 892.