another great day

yes it was another great day. it was cloudy and cold, just the way i like it. it helps me think clearly. it helps me remember. but it never helps me forget.

funny how i define a great day to be one where it is all dark and gloomy, where i simply have time to myself and do nothing. since when have i been this way? funny, i don't remember. now the only thing missing is the last string on my guitar. i really should get a new set of strings. i wish there was an online shopping site where they would deliver the guitar strings right to my doorstep. maybe there is...

well anyways i'm torn between ghs bright bronze contact core, ghs vintage bronze and ghs silk and bronze. i'm not a fan of sounds that are too warm and mellow, i'm gunning for sounds that are brighter, slightly warm is fine, as well as crispy, giving that tone suitable for studio recording. if you do have any inputs i'd like to hear them out. currently i'm using bright bronze contact core strings, and they do provide great sustain and a full and rich tone. i might want to try something different.

sadly, its not longer raining now. i wish it would continue throughout the night. no i'm not being emo, i thrive in the dark and i have a dark dark life. and exams are next week and the week after, i'm expecting myself not being able to breathe for awhile, but once that is over it is going to be a long long break that we all truly deserve.

are we really going short?

the markets have been on a rampage since a number of weeks back. it has been up, up and up. but is there any reason behind this? i have no clue. but lets just look at some of the factors and you make your own call, and tell me have you ever seen a bear charging up.

economic conditions in general hasn't been all good. positive news have been sporadic, adding fuel to the rally. the current climate still looks very dark and gloomy, and there isn't really a light at the end of the tunnel. not anytime soon. but why this strong upwards move?

my best guess to this question would simply be human rational/irrational behaviour. once the low was touched again, it formed a double bottom pattern, and bargain hunter scooped huge baskets of stocks and keep them in their portfolio. herd mentality led others to do the same as his neighbour or the shoe shine boy. the huge wave in buying led to an increase in momentum in buying pressure, a wave that swept short sellers by surprise, forcing them to cover their positions at either a loss or a reduced profit, spurring the rally. like pouring fuel to a fire.

as a result, the market gives a false sense of impression that businesses are picking up, the market has waded the storm floods and the sun is back up again. people are in a positive mood.

then as we look at the next critical resistance, the highest high since the lowest low was touched, this is where short sellers are lying wait. the wait for the next sign that the momentum has died, and the frenzy of buying will lead to the next wave of manic selling.

today the market turned, whether that is an indication or not, i can't say for sure. it might just be a consolidation. but all i can say is that if you expect the stock market to pick up, stop and rethink.

the next wave will come, and its going to be down.

wtf

i can't believe that i still reminisce. its kind of shitty when you think of it. you are enjoying your life now. well good for you, but never discredit what ive done for you and how i did make a difference. i know who you credit for what you've become, but seriously until then, no one knew you better in this world than me.

never discredit me, for i never did discredit you.

i was watching band of brothers this afternoon and i was strangely immersed into the setting of the show. i must say that it is one of the best ww2 shows out there.

how i wish i lived in that era. much better than training during ns i must say. isn't it wonderful to live each day, not knowing whether you would be able to see the light of tomorrow? i want to walk and fight on the frontlines, each day seeing new places far away from home. each time staying and harbouring in a place so foreign to me. each day moving forwards, no turning back.

to be honest, if i had to do that to protect my loved ones, i'd get up and fight.

in one of the scene, an enlisted man took out a photo, and it reminded me of us. how only that photo got me through the thick and thin. how i felt like crying each time i looked at it. but the only difference is that i'm proud to tell others about us, while you were too preoccupied with something else on your mind.

just to prepare for whats up tomorrow, sti has a high likelihood of moving up, provided it can shake off the dow's slide down. expect dow to continue on its path.

sti and the dow

dow jones is at its resistance, with 2 days of high volume trading, slight spinning top double and indicators on negative ROC. expect the dow to move downwards tonight, and continue for the next week. 7100 is the initial level to look out for, followed by 6516 if the downtrend persists.

sti showed a spinning top pattern, at a crucial support/resistance level. no abnormalities in volume indicating consolidation, and i expect sti to carry on its move upwards if monday shows strong buying pressure. level to look out for is 1635, this is where sti is going if its going up.

just to point out that intraday volatility for indexes may give false trading signals. thus, it is prudent to widen your stop losses.

updates

once again i was reminded of my past. how bittersweet it was. it was akin to lightning flashes as the memories flashed on and off, triggering a flurry of senses throughout my whole body. this is distracting. utterly.

i was looking at the dow and sti. dow had made a 50% retracement from its trough and is currently weakening in motion. i would expect channel trading to occur between yesterday's high and the lowest low. as for the sti, it is hovering around a key support/resistance level, an upwards break of 1630 would signal further upmove. as with the down, expect channel trading to occur.

thats all.

sorry.

a need for change

he said that life was like a box of chocolates, and that you'll never know what you get inside. indeed, you will never know what you will get inside. but before getting that box of chocolates, don't tell me you bought hershey's bittersweet chocolate expecting something else like white chocolate inside.

i always believed that all of us are in control of our lives. we control our destiny and we make our own choices. we may be swayed by those around us, but ultimately, it is the choices we make that sets us on the path of our own lives.

it is indeed another rainy day, and i'm loving it.

my life hasn't always been perfect in a normal sense. how good can life be when you endure failures and suffering? people always choose to see the darker side of life, and only choose to embrace the darkness. but what i'm trying to bring across here is that darkness should be embraced, and you should hold steady in your hands, a lit candle that will help you see through the darkness.

when i was young, i mixed with the wrong company and went on a rebellion rampage. as i grew older, i got worse and began to stray from my ideals. it took me some time to get my act together. it took a threat from my dad to wake me up from my carefree slumber. it took several scarring from my mum to get properly educated. that is my life.

today, as i look around, i see my past in alot of people. carefree and reckless. youths spending their parents money on rubbish just to satisfy their basic needs and the need for acceptance into their "community" which would one day screw them over. i see helpless people, who lack that personal drive in doing something and let their emotions get the better of them. i see failure turned into more failure because giving up seems like the best option.

indeed there is a need for change. i want to be the change.

what will happen next?

as i have mentioned in my earlier post, the market seems to have some more room for a downwards move. this is the path of least resistance. right now upon analysing STI, it is clear that it is being driven down heavily on fundamentals, primarily the weakened banking stocks. and so what is next for the market?

investors would be please with the current market climate. right now, investors should be keeping high levels of cash and liquid assets, or safe yields. my suggestion would be a 1-2 year government bond just to get a higher return on your cash. banks do not offer much except for their timed deposits. 1-2 years? yup. isn't that a little too long? yup, i'll explain why later on.

now, speculators like me will expect further shorting opportunities after a slight technical rebound. STI is currently nearing its 52-week low and is exhibiting slight buying pressure. monday might see the continuation of the rebound up to 1570, depending on on how the market opens and reacts within the first hour of trading. high chance of it testing 1470 if the market gaps up and shows strong selling pressure.

now, what will happen once peace and order has been restored? the market will go into a consolidation phase, just like the scene of a war movie where the dust settles. during this period, individuals are starting to gain confidence in the market. this would be led by bold investors who are ready with cash on hand to grab up bargains. the market will move sideways, probably in a channel.

you may ask, how come the prices still go down in an uptrending market? well, profit taking will set in and traders will lock in their profits once a targeted price has been reached. and to those of you who says technical analysis is bullshit, well think again. the market is made up of individuals who react based on history. like previous highs and lows.

once confidence in the market is fully restored, we can see another slow bull run to the next top, and an even further top when greed drives prices way beyond what they are supposed to be. like if i sell you an apple for $5 per apple.

where is the bottom?

lets hit some boring topics for the day.

i've been observing the market patterns these few days and the only conclusion i can get from it is that investors are in a state of confusion. from the looks of it, STI is heading downwards, and this is primarily due to the banking stocks such as DBS, OCBC and UOB. i could still remember a few months ago when someone told me, "hey, DBS is quite cheap now, only at 8 dollars plus, i think it may be good if i buy in some."

and my typical response was, "the end is not over, this isn't the real bottom."

people would ask me how i would know such an absurd fact. honestly, i am only speculating. that is my job. but if i were to give a rational presentation of my speculation, i would not make sense for a market recovery when most of the world's financial situation hasn't been solved yet.

i'm not an investor honestly. but i do look at the overall picture. i look at how the market operates. just like a doctor, i study the inner workings of the markets.

now, selling has set it. however, we have to cautiously tread this volatile market. the final wave, in my opinion, is now. but instead of a violent wave of selling, we are seeing a different last wave. this would be a slow but painful death. a high likelihood that this retracement will take the market back to the pre-bullish period of 2002/2003.

we'll wait awhile till DBS touches 6.25 to 6.50. currently, it is at 6.91.

be grateful

we should be grateful for the things that are given to us, as well as the good things that were done to us. there are people i know who choose not to be grateful, especially when it causes them to subconsciously link their thoughts to a bad memory. after all, we are only human.

i am truly grateful for all that has happened, be it good or bad. that is how i am able to move forwards in life without regret. if i hadn't been beaten by a leather belt, a feather duster and a clothes hanger, i would probably not be in a good school studying right now. probably mixing with the wrong company and doing the wrong things.

i am grateful. my life is in check. i control it.